Results of our studies

IN BRIEF

Russians say that the outgoing year was better personally for them and their family members, however the national-scale dynamics looks less optimistic. Russians have lower expectations for 2019 than a year ago.

MOSCOW, December 26, 2018. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the data of a survey devoted to what Russians remember about 2018 and what they expect from 2019, as well as how they are going to celebrate the New Year’s Eve, what they will give as gifts and how much they will spend.

2018 events

The World Cup was the major event in 2018 (12%). Changes in pension legislation are among major events on a national scale for 24% of Russians. The main scandals were the Kerch strait incident (10%), Ukraine-related events (8%) and the Skripal case (7%).

The Medialogia company study of the Russian media suggests that the list of the most significant world events is headed by the Skripal case (14,725.60). The 2018 World Cup is at the top of the list of Russian events (20,647.66) followed by the Kemerovo shopping mall tragedy (16,116.29) and Putin’s victory in the presidential elections (12,208.61).

2018 ratings

Vladimir Putin is named the politician of the year (46%) he is followed by Sergey Lavrov (18%), Sergey Shoygu (9%), Dmitry Medvedev (6%), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (5%), etc.

The list of the most popular athletes is headed by the figure skaters Alina Zagitova (11%) and Evgeniya Medvedeva, football players Artem Dzyuba (8%) and Igor Akinfeev (7%), the fighter Khabib Nurmagomedov (5%).

As to actors, Sergey Bezrukov has been the most famous for several consecutive years (8%); Konstantin Khabensky (5%) is on the second place. Philipp Kirkorov is the top music performer of the year (10%). The hardest question refers to the writer of the year: all informative answers do not exceed 2%: Daria Dontsova (2%), Alexander Pushkin (2%), Zakhar Prilepin (2%); the remainder gained 1% and even less.

The most popular TV show is the Rossiya-1 project “60 minutes” (8%). The best TV series are “The Policeman of Rublyovka” (Politseysky s Rublevki)  and “The Major” (5%, each). The best movies in 2018 are “Going Vertical” (Dvizhenie vverkh”) (3%), “The Avengers” (Mstiteli) and “T-34” (2%, each).

2018 emotions and assessments; expectations for 2019

Russians bid goodbye to 2018 being in a good mood: the corresponding index* reached 56 p. Forty-nine percent express joy and expect changes for the better; 27% are calm and confident. At the same time, in 2018 more respondents had negative emotions: an increase in “tiredness” from 8% to 19%, an increase in “disturbance” from 10% to 15%, “sadness” from 4% to 10%, “disappointment” from 3% to 10%.

The assessments of personal outcomes are higher than a year ago: index of personal outcomes** reached 17 p. in 2018 (14 p. in 2017). The outgoing year was “good” and “successful” personally for 57% of respondents; 40% say difficulties prevailed and the year was hard for them. The assessments on a national scale are less positive: the corresponding index** shows a considerable decrease compared to the previous year (from -12 to -27 p.p.). The balance of assessments is still negative: 33% view the year positively, whereas 60% negatively.

Russians do not expect too much from the upcoming year: the index of personal expectations*** has declined from 64 p. in 2017 to 34 p. in 2018. The figure on a national scale has also dropped (from 42 p. to 3 p.). Every fifth respondent (21%) considers that the next year will be successful for them personally; 13% for the country in general.

New Year’s Eve celebration plans, expenditures and gifts

Home remains a customary location to spend the New Year’s Eve (80% will stay at home). A further 6% will pay a visit to friends; 4% will go to dacha. Just 5% of respondents do not have any particular plans for the New Year’s Eve.

Spending on the New Year’s Eve celebration has decreased by 4%: an average amount is 13,755 rub. (vs 14,299 rub. last year). Eighty-seven percent of respondents will spend approximately 5,006 rub. on gifts (5,301 rub. in 2017.); 89% will spend 4,413 rub. on food; 53% are going to spend 4,335  rub. on visits to theatres, restaurants and New Year party for children.

Desires and opportunities concerning the gift ideas do not coincide this year: most of respondents are going to give sweets, spirits and delicacies (25%), whereas 8% would like to get them as presents. Respondents also mention souvenirs and toys (23%, each), perfumery and cosmetics (21%) as other gift ideas. The most desired presents are tour packages (11%), tickets to cinemas, theatres and dinner at a restaurant (10%); thirteen percent are not willing to give any gifts; 27% would refuse to receive presents.

Detailed results are available in <link wciom.ru/fileadmin/file/reports_conferences/2018/2018-12-26_itogi_goda.pdf - external-link-new-window>PPT file</link>  

* Index describes an overall Russian perception of the outgoing year and hopes for the upcoming year. The Index is based on the question: “What feelings do you have bidding a farewell to the outgoing year and welcoming the upcoming year?” The answer “good feeling, a sense of optimism” corresponds to the coefficient “0.9”; the answer “I feel neither emotional upheaval nor negative emotions”– “0.5”; “Rather bad mood, pessimistic expectations” – “0.1”. The Index is measured in points and can vary between 10 and 90. The higher the value of index is, the more optimistic Russians are bidding farewell to the outgoing year and welcoming the upcoming year.

** Indices of personal outcomes and general country’s outcomes are based on the questions “What was the outgoing year like for you personally and your family?” and “What was the outgoing year for Russia in general?” The Index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative assessments. The value of Index may vary between -100 and 100 points. The higher the value of Index is, the more positive respondents are about the outgoing year.

*** Indices of Personal Expectations and Index of National Expectations are based on the questions “What do you and your family expect for the upcoming year?” and “What should Russia expect for the upcoming year?” The Index is calculated as the difference of positive and negative assessments. The value may vary between -100 and 100 points. The higher the value of Index is, the more positive respondents are about the future. 

The VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted in December, 2018. The survey involved 1,600 Russians aged 18 and over, and was carried out using stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of landline and mobile phone numbers operating in Russia. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes in question wording and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

The 2003-2016 results are based on household surveys.

The monitoring and analysis of the Russian media was carried out by the Medialogia Company using the Medialogia database involving 48,100 sources (TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, information agencies, online media). The period of study was from January 1st through December 19th, 2018.

 

Can you name three most important world events happened in 2018? (open-ended question, not more than three answers, shown are informative answers mentioned by at least 2% of respondents)

 

Total respondents

World Cup in Russia

12

Events in Syria

9

Kerch Bridge opening

6

Pension reform in Russia

5

Ukraine developments

3

Kerch strait incident

3

G-20 summit

3

New sanctions against Russia

3

Russia-Ukraine relations

3

Russian foreign policy

3

Presidential elections in Russia

2

Severny potok-2 (Nord stream 2) natural gas pipeline

2

Can you name three most important events happened in Russia in 2018? (open-ended question, not more than three answers, shown are informative answers mentioned by at least 2% of respondents)

 

Total respondents

Pensions reform

24

Hosting the World Cup

13

Kerch bridge opening

8

Presidential elections

6

Value-added tax increase

4

Price increase for gasoline

4

High inflation rate

2

Kerch strait incident

2

Fall in living standards

2

  

 

Event visibility

Three major world events in Russian media

UK allegations against Russia: blaming Petrov and Boshirov for Sergey and Yulia Skripal’s poisoning, strengthening sanctions against Russia   

14,725.60

USA, France, UK  staged a strike on Syria after the reported use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government in Douma

10,133.11

Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Kerch strait  

9,231.47

Three major Russian events in Russian media 

 

World Cup in Russia  

20,647.66

Kemerovo tragedy, Zimnyaya Vishnya fire

16,116.29

Victory of Vladimir Putin in presidential elections

12,208.61

  

What feeling do you have bidding farewell to 2018 and welcoming 2019?

(closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Good feeling, a sense of optimism

33

40

29

34

33

34

34

35

41

41

45

48

39

I feel neither emotional upheaval nor negative emotions 

49

44

46

49

51

50

54

51

45

43

42

38

38

Rather bad mood, pessimistic expectations

16

8

20

11

12

10

10

9

10

14

12

11

21

Don’t know

2

8

5

6

4

6

2

5

4

2

1

3

2

Index*

56

59

51

56

56

57

59

58

60

60

63

63

56

  

What feelings do you have on New Year’s eve? (closed-ended question, not more than three answers, %)

 

2012

2013

2014  

2015  

2016  

2017  

2018  

Joy, expectations of changes for the better

35

35

42

43

50

49

49

Calmness and confidence

23

27

23

24

25

32

27

Tiredness, devastation

16

18

13

17

12

8

19

Disturbance  

15

12

21

14

7

10

15

Sadness

9

9

11

9

14

4

10

Disappointment

8

6

6

7

5

3

10

Other

1

1

2

3

2

1

2

I do not feel anything special  

17

16

13

9

9

18

7

Don’t know

1

1

3

1

1

2

2

 

What was the outgoing year like for you personally and your family? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

03  

04  

05  

06  

07  

08  

09  

10  

11  

12  

13  

14  

15  

16  

17  

18  

Very good

6

4

6

9

7

4

4

4

4

5

6

5

7

8

7

7

Basically good

49

39

45

50

55

49

38

42

53

50

46

54

45

44

48

50

Rather difficult 

37

43

39

33

30

35

45

44

35

39

41

33

34

34

29

28

Very bad, difficult 

7

13

9

6

5

9

11

7

5

5

6

6

13

13

12

12

Don’t know

1

1

1

2

3

3

2

3

3

1

1

2

1

1

4

3

Index **

11

-13

3

20

27

9

-14

-5

17

11

5

20

5

5

14

17

  

What was the outgoing year like for Russia in general? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

03  

04  

05  

06  

07  

08  

09  

10  

11  

12  

13  

14  

15  

16  

17  

18  

Very good

5

1

4

6

7

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

5

5

4

Basically good

40

26

42

47

57

37

18

23

38

36

36

33

19

30

35

29

Rather difficult 

46

53

44

37

25

47

61

55

47

51

50

52

57

44

41

43

Very bad, difficult 

4

12

5

3

2

7

14

12

5

5

5

9

18

15

11

17

Don’t know

5

8

5

7

9

7

5

8

8

6

6

3

3

6

8

7

Index **

-5

-38

-3

13

37

-15

-55

-42

-12

-18

-16

-25

-53

-24

-12

-27

  

What do you and your family expect for the upcoming year? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

03  

04  

05  

06  

07  

08  

09  

10  

11  

12  

13  

14  

15  

16  

17  

18  

I think the upcoming year will be rather good

27

10

12

19

21

12

14

11

11

8

13

11

23

27

27

21

I think that the upcoming year will be generally good 

47

45

52

51

54

37

47

51

54

51

52

54

43

48

53

45

It will be rather difficult 

20

34

27

21

15

39

27

24

23

30

28

26

26

18

15

27

I think it will be very bad

1

5

3

1

1

4

3

2

3

3

2

3

3

3

1

5

Don’t know

5

6

6

8

9

8

9

12

9

8

5

6

5

4

4

2

Index ***

53

16

34

48

59

6

31

36

39

26

35

36

37

54

64

34

What should Russia expect for the upcoming year? (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

03  

04  

05  

06  

07  

08  

09  

10  

11  

12  

13  

14  

15  

16  

17  

18  

I think the upcoming year will be rather good

13

6

9

14

18

8

8

8

8

8

8

9

18

24

21

13

I think that the upcoming year will be generally good 

48

37

49

53

52

30

42

43

46

51

48

44

37

44

48

37

It will be rather difficult 

29

41

30

22

17

48

35

29

31

30

33

35

34

21

25

40

I think it will be very bad

1

4

3

1

1

6

3

4

3

3

3

5

6

4

2

7

Don’t know

9

12

9

10

12

8

12

16

12

8

8

7

5

7

4

3

Index ***

31

-2

25

44

52

-16

12

18

20

26

20

13

15

43

42

3

  

How are you going to celebrate the New Year’s Eve?  (closed-ended question, one answer, %)

 

03  

05  

06  

07  

08  

09  

10  

11  

12  

13  

14  

15  

16  

17  

18  

At home

74

73

77

76

77

75

76

72

73

76

74

77

76

78

80

Visiting friends

15

15

13

14

13

12

14

16

16

16

14

11

11

8

6

At dacha  (my own, my friends’, my relatives’ dacha)

1

1

1

1

2

1

2

2

2

1

2

2

4

3

4

At a restaurant (club, dance party)

2

3

2

2

2

2

2

3

2

2

3

2

2

1

1

In the countryside, at a holiday centre, health resort

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

1

1

Abroad

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

I will not celebrate the New Year’s eve

2

2

2

2

2

4

2

2

3

1

3

3

3

4

5

Don’t know

5

5

4

4

3

5

3

4

3

4

3

3

2

4

2

And how much money are you going to spend for the New Year celebration?  (closed-ended question, one answer per each option based on the answers of those who plan spending)

Average spending, rub. 

 

05  

06  

07  

08  

09  

10  

11  

12  

13  

14  

15  

16  

17  

18

Gifts to relatives

1105

1409

1764

1824

2058

2200

2497

2666

2853

3142

4198

4338

5301

5007

New Year table

1155

1437

1762

1879

2116

2142

2417

2593

2824

3103

4069

4164

4596

4413

Other spending (Christmas tree, travel packages, theatres, restaurants, et cet.)

902

1169

1431

1502

1654

1826

2040

2169

2437

2383

3617

3895

4402

4335

Total (total expenditures)

3163

4015

4957

5206

5828

6168

6953

7428

8114

8628

11884

12397

14299

13755

An increase compared to the previous year, % 

 

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Gifts to relatives

 

27

25

3

12

6

14

7

7

10

34

3

22

-5

New Year table

 

24

22

6

12

1

13

7

9

10

31

2

10

-4

Other spending (Christmas tree, travel packages, theatres, restaurants, et cet.)

 

29

22

4

10

10

12

6

12

-2

52

8

13

-1

Total (total expenditures)

 

26

23

4

11

5

13

7

9

6

38

4

15

-4

  

What are you GOING TO GIVE as a New Year gift to your friends and relatives?  (closed-ended question, not more than four answers, %)

 

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

Candies, spirits, specialties

26

30

29

30

24

28

29

29

28

28

24

26

22

25

Souvenirs (pens, notepads, purse, et cet.)

33

36

38

37

30

31

31

35

42

35

28

30

31

23

Toys

23

29

29

28

23

26

25

24

23

23

22

24

23

23

Perfumery, cosmetics, bijouterie

21

23

22

21

20

24

23

23

25

21

15

19

21

21

Money

4

6

7

6

8

7

10

11

9

8

10

13

9

14

Household appliances (tea-kettle, iron, coffee maker)

4

6

5

5

4

8

7

6

8

5

6

7

9

9

Clothes, shoes

7

8

9

9

6

8

9

10

7

7

6

9

8

9

Mobile phones

3

5

4

3

5

5

5

6

7

5

4

4

7

8

Jewellery

4

4

6

5

7

8

7

7

8

6

4

5

6

6

Tickets to concert, theatre, a restaurant dinner

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

3

4

4

6

Flowers 

8

9

9

7

7

6

6

7

7

7

3

7

6

4

Camera, video camera, TV set, sound system)

1

1

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

2

2

1

1

CD, DVD

7

9

8

5

6

6

4

2

7

2

1

1

1

1

Computer

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Tour package

0

0

0

0

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

1

1

1

Car

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

5

4

8

7

4

4

3

4

2

4

5

5

8

2

I will not give anyone anything

15

12

14

16

15

14

10

13

12

11

16

14

13

13

Don’t know

12

9

9

9

15

11

16

7

9

12

11

8

5

6

                                                                                                               

What would you like to have as a New Year gift from your friends and relatives? 

(closed-ended question, not more than four answers, %)

 

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Tour package

6

7

8

10

9

6

6

6

9

11

Perfumery, cosmetics, bijouterie

9

11

10

10

8

10

5

9

12

10

Tickets to concert, theatre, a restaurant dinner

3

3

4

5

3

5

4

6

9

10

Money

10

10

15

17

17

11

11

15

6

9

Candies, spirits, specialties

4

5

9

7

7

10

5

6

7

8

Household appliances (tea-kettle, iron, coffee maker)

4

6

5

6

5

4

4

5

6

8

Souvenirs (pens, notepads, purse, et cet.)

7

8

9

7

14

13

7

8

14

7

Jewellery

9

10

8

9

8

8

6

7

6

7

Mobile phone

7

7

6

5

7

5

5

7

5

7

Flowers

4

4

4

5

4

3

3

4

5

5

Car

7

6

7

9

7

4

7

9

4

5

Camera, video camera, TV set, sound system

4

5

7

6

6

4

2

3

2

3

Clothes, shoes

5

6

4

5

5

4

2

3

2

3

Computer

3

4

2

4

4

3

2

3

3

2

Toys

1

2

2

1

2

2

1

1

1

1

CD, DVD

3

2

1

2

4

1

0

1

0

1

I do not want to have anything as a gift

17

16

14

17

18

17

23

19

27

27

Other

5

5

4

5

4

7

13

13

11

2

Don’t know

25

21

23

15

14

18

12

13

8

7

 

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