Results of our studies

IN BRIEF

Russians keep track of what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh and view the ceasefire in a positive way; however they make cautious forecasts about ultimate peaceful resolution.

 

MOSCOW, November 18, 2020.  Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey describing how well Russians are informed about the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, how they perceive it, and what forecasts they make.

 

The share of Russians who, with varying degrees, keep track of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is 72%; 19% say they do it very closely (mainly older respondents aged 60+ (39%)). Twenty-six percent of respondents are not interested in the situation in the region at all; mainly young Russians aged 18-24 and 25-34 (44% and 51%, respectively).

According to the opinions of those who keep track of the situation, what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh right now can be described in the following way: the parties signed a peaceful agreement, stopped the military operations, announced ceasefire (32%), Russia sent peacekeeping troops (28%); it can be generally called a conflict, military activities between Armenia and Azerbaijan to gain territory (26%).

An overwhelming majority of Russians perceived positively the ceasefire (81%); most often they are respondents aged 45-59 (88%) and those aged 60 and older (94%). Fifteen percent of Russians are indifferent; they are predominantly respondents aged 25-34.

According to 41% of Russians, both parties benefited from the peaceful treaty. Every fifth Russian thinks that Azerbaijan has more benefits (20%); those who share this viewpoint are often men (25%) and metropolitan residents (30%).

Russia has played a key role in the conflict settlement and signing of the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement (64%; mainly respondents aged 60 and older (84%) and those aged 45-59 (77%)). Sixteen percent of respondents think that the Russia’s role was secondary; this opinion is often shared by young Russians (35% of the 18-24-year-olds; 28% of the 25-34-year-olds).

Thirty-nine percent of Russians consider that the situation will evolve in a peaceful manner and there will be no war; those who think so are largely Russians aged 60 and older (46%). One-third of respondents think that the war will be renewed but not soon (31%); 12% do not expect that any military activities will be continued in the near future.

Russian nationwide VCIOM-Sputnik survey was conducted on November 13, 2020. Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,600 Russians aged 18 and older. Stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of Russian landline and mobile phone numbers was used. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.

 

 

Are you personally interested in what is happening in the Nagorno-Karabakh region at the moment?

 (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Aged 18-24

25-34

35-44

45-59

60 and older

I keep track of the situation regularly

19

10

6

12

17

39

I keep track of the situation from time to time, not regularly

53

45

42

55

66

52

I am not interested at all

26

44

51

32

17

8

Don’t know

2

1

1

1

0

1

Can you describe in two or three words what is currently happening in Nagorno-Karabakh? (% of those who are interested in the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh 72%); open-ended question, not more than 3 answers; shown are answers of at least 2% of respondents)

 

Those who are interested in the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh

The parties signed a peaceful agreement / ended the military operations / ceasefire

32

Russia sent a  peacekeeping force

28

Military operation between Armenia and Azerbaijan / division of territory / conflict

26

Unrest, protests in Armenia / they want to dismiss the power / they do not agree with the terms of the ceasefire

6

Azerbaijan won / regained its territory / they celebrate it

5

Mess / disorder / many people were killed

3

Turkey’s indirect influence / Turkey supports Azerbaijan

2

Armenia lost / lost its territories

2

Russia established relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan / settled the conflict

2

People suffer / I feel sympathy for people

2

Azerbaijan shot down a  Russian helicopter

2

Other

13

Don’t know

14

Armenia and Azerbaijan had signed a cease-ire agreement to put an end to the war in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.  How did you generally perceive the ceasefire?(closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Aged 18-24

25-34

35-44

45-59

60 and older

Positively

81

69

65

73

88

94

Negatively

2

6

2

1

3

1

Indifferently

15

23

30

24

8

3

Don’t know

2

2

3

2

1

2

In your opinion, who benefited more from the Nagorno-Karabakh peaceful agreement?

(closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Men

Women

Likely Armenia

5

6

5

Likely Azerbaijan

20

25

16

Likely both countries

41

36

46

Other countries

10

15

5

Don’t know

24

18

28

In your opinion, who benefited more from the Nagorno-Karabakh peaceful agreement?

 (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Moscow and St Petersburg

Million-plus cities

500-950,000 inhabitants 

100–500,000 inhabitants

<100,000

Rural area

Likely Armenia

5

5

2

4

5

4

8

Likely Azerbaijan

20

30

24

23

25

14

14

Likely both countries

41

26

37

43

36

46

51

Other countries

10

15

11

9

12

8

6

Don’t know

24

24

26

21

22

28

21

In your opinion, what role did Russia play in signing of the Nagorno-Karabakh peaceful agreement? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Aged 18-24

25-34

35-44

45-59

60 and older

Key role

64

37

40

57

77

84

Secondary role

16

35

28

15

10

9

No role

5

8

9

7

3

2

Don’t know

15

20

23

21

10

5

In your opinion, how will the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh region evolve in the future?

(closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents)

 

Total respondents

Aged 18-24

25-34

35-44

45-59

60 and older

The war is likely to continue soon

12

11

16

19

9

7

The war is likely to continue but it will not happen soon

31

40

27

31

33

28

The war is likely not to happen again

39

33

33

36

39

46

Don’t know

18

16

24

14

19

19

 

Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM, the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory.

 

Read the article in Russian