MOSCOW, August 4, 2009. Russian Public Opinion research Center (VCIOM) presents the data describing what Russians think about the Georgian-Ossetian conflict a year after it took place, whether they think Russia should support South Ossetia and by what means, and what principles Russia should be guided in relation to unrecognized republics.
The Georgian-Ossetian conflict escalated into the armed confrontation because of Georgia - a majority of Russians think so (56%). Fifteen percent blame American government, western special services, international community; 5% think that the reason was the ambitions of the conflict parties; 3% think that each of the parties bears equal responsibility. Two percent of respondents put the blame on Russia; 1% (for each) - on South Ossetia, Ukraine, NATO and UN. In 25% of cases our fellow citizens were undecided.
Russians are confident that Russia made the right decision to have supported South Ossetia (86%). Those who approve of Russia are mostly supporters of "Fair Russia" party (94%) and CPRF (93%), as well as residents of North-Western (95%), Volga (95%) and Far-Eastern (97%) Federal Districts of Russia. Only 6% of respondents do not approve of the actions of Russia - they are basically LDPR adherents (14%) and respondents residing in the Urals and Siberia Districts of Russia (10% for each).
A year after the conflict took place, 60% of Russians think that supporting South Ossetia in this conflict was the most appropriate course of action for Russia. Those who think so are mainly supporters of such parties as "Fair Russia" (63%), "Pravoe Delo", "Yabloko" and "Patriots of Russia" (68%). Eighteen percent think that Russia should have prevented the armed conflict and should have been mediated in the negotiations between the parties - most of those who have such point of view are supporters of "Fair Russia" (28%). Nine percent consider that Russia should have provided only material support such as weapons or financing - most of those who think so are CPRF and LDPR electorate (11% and 12% respectively). Respondents who think that none of the parties should have been supported (4%) as well as those who think that Russia should have supported Georgia (2%) are in the minority.
In 2004, Russians had different point of view regarding Russia's positions in case the Georgian-Ossetian conflict would turn into the armed phase. Only 6% approved of the military support to Ossetia. In most of cases Russians thought Russia should have supported neither Georgia nor Ossetia (34%) or should have prevented the escalation into armed conflict (29%). Fourteen percent reported Russia should not have taken part in military actions, Russia should have provided Ossetia with weapons and finance instead. As now, those who advised to have supported Georgia are in the minority.
Our fellow citizens are almost unanimous with regard to support for Ossetia: 87% still think Russia should support Ossetia. Respondents often mention humanitarian support (41%). Thirty-two advise material support; 28% prefer military support. The proportion of those who think that Russia should promote the recognition of independence for South Ossetia by other states as well as those who think Russia should assist with rebuilding the objects destroyed during the conflict are 27 % for each. Twenty percent think that Russia should contribute to strengthening the authorities in South Ossetia. Only 6% think Russia should not support South Ossetia.
Residents of North-Western Federal District of Russia mention the need for humanitarian and material support for South Ossetia (52% and 41% respectively), as well as assisting with rebuilding the objects destroyed during the conflict (32%). Those who suggest military support are mainly respondents from Siberia and the Urals (33% for each). Inhabitants of the Far East of Russia more often than others attach significance to promoting the recognition of independence of South Ossetia by other countries (47%). Residents of Volga District tend to suggest promoting strengthening authorities in South Ossetia (25%). Those who oppose supporting South Ossetia are mainly from Siberia (10%).
Taking into consideration the vulnerability of South Ossetia, every second respondent think that Russia should treat South Ossetia as an independent state and promote recognition of its independence by other states (52%). Most of those who think so are supporters of such parties as "Yabloko", "Pravoe delo" and "Patriots of Russia" (68%), as well as respondents under 34-year-old age (54-56%). Every fourth (25%) advocate for the inclusion of this republic into Russian Federation - they are basically supporters of CPRF, LDPR and "Fair Russia" (32-34%) and Russians aged above 35 (27-28%). As 9% of Russians think, South Ossetia should join Russia-Belarus Union. Those who think that South Ossetia should be returned to Georgia are in the minority (3%).
Compared with 2008, Russians have considerably changed their attitudes concerning the principles Russia should be guided with regard to unrecognized republics such as Nagorniy Karabakh and Pridnestrovie. Whereas in March 2008, almost half a year before the conflict, respondents often reported that each case requires detailed consideration (34%), now, as in 2006, respondents tend to support the principle of self-determination of all peoples and independence of unrecognized republics (17% against 21% in 2008). The share of those who think that each situation should be considered separately is almost the same (34-36% during 2006-2009). The proportion of those who were undecided has remarkably decreased (from 25% to 15%).
Those who support the principle of self-determination for all peoples are mainly residents of small cities (41%). Respondents supporting the principle of territorial integrity are basically Muscovites and St.Petersburgians (22%). Residents of meddle-sized and bigger cities think that each case requires different actions (40-41%).
The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted on July 25-26, 2009.
1600 respondents were interviewed at 140 sampling points in 42 regions of Russia.
The margin of error does not exceed 3.4%.
In your opinion, who is responsible for the escalation of the protracted conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia into armed confrontation? (close-ended question, one answer) | |
Georgian authorities | 56 |
American government, western special services, international community | 15 |
Ambitions of the conflict parties | 5 |
All conflict parties are equally to blame | 3 |
Russian authorities | 2 |
South Ossetian authorities | 1 |
Ukrainian authorities | 1 |
NATO, UN | 1 |
Other | 1 |
Hard to tell | 25 |
In your opinion, did Russia do the right thing by helping South Ossetia in the Georgian-Ossetian conflict? (close-ended question, one answer) | |||||||
| Total respondents | Parties that Russians would vote for if the elections to the State Duma were held next Sunday | |||||
"United Russia" | CPRF | LDPR | "Fair Russia" | Other ("Pravoe Delo", "Patriots of Russia, "Yabloko") | I would not participate | ||
Certainly right | 59 | 62 | 74 | 53 | 60 | 73 | 54 |
Rather right | 27 | 28 | 19 | 27 | 34 | 14 | 25 |
Rather wrong | 5 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 6 |
Certainly wrong | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Hard to tell | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
A year ago the conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia turned into an armed phase. In your opinion, what should Russia have done? (close-ended question, one answer) | 2009 | In case the conflict between South Ossetia and Georgia turns into an armed phase, what should Russia do? (close-ended question, one answer) | 2004 |
Russia should have provided military support for South Ossetia | 60 | Russia should provide military support for South Ossetia | 6 |
Russia should not have engaged in hostilities, but should have provided South Ossetia with financial help and weapons | 9 | Russia should engage in hostilities, but should not provide South Ossetia with financial help and weapons | 14 |
Russia should have supported neither of the conflict parties | 4 | Russia should support neither of the conflict parties | 34 |
Russia should have supported Georgia | 2 | Russia should support Georgia | 2 |
Russia should have prevented the armed conflict and mediated between Georgia and South Ossetia | 18 | Russia should prevent the armed conflict and mediate between Georgia and South Ossetia | 29 |
Hard to tell | 7 | Hard to tell | 16 |
In your opinion, should Russia help South Ossetia? If yes, what kind of help should be provided? (close-ended question, not more than three answers) | ||||||||
| Total respondents | Federal Districts* | ||||||
CFD | NWFD | SFD | PFD | UFD | SFD | DFD | ||
Material, financial help | 32 | 34 | 41 | 34 | 26 | 22 | 32 | 37 |
Humanitarian help | 41 | 41 | 52 | 38 | 34 | 44 | 48 | 32 |
Military help | 28 | 28 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 33 | 33 | 32 |
Russia should promote the recognition of independence of South Ossetia by other countries | 27 | 25 | 25 | 31 | 33 | 21 | 18 | 47 |
Russia should help rebuilding the objects destroyed during the conflict | 27 | 28 | 32 | 26 | 25 | 17 | 30 | 29 |
Russia should promote statehood and strengthen South Ossetian authorities | 20 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 25 | 21 | 20 | 23 |
Russian should hot help South Ossetia | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Other | 1 | 0 |
|
| 1 |
| 0 | 1 |
Hard to tell | 6 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 5 | 4 |
*Abbreviations
CFD - Central Federal District
NWFD - North-Western Federal District
SFD - Southern Federal District
PFD - Volga Federal District
UFD - Urals Federal District
SFD - Siberian Federal District
DFD - Far-Eastern Federal District
South Ossetia is a small state which is economically weak and vulnerable. What position should Russia take with regard to the future of South Ossetia that is currently under discussion? (close-ended question, one answer) | |||||
| Total respondents | Education | |||
Elementary, or lower, incomplete secondary education
| Secondary (school, technical college) | Secondary special (college) | Incomplete higher (not less than 3 years), higher | ||
Treat South Ossetia as an independent state and promote the recognition of its independence by other countries | 52 | 45 | 48 | 55 | 55 |
Make efforts to return South Ossetia to Georgia | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Include South Ossetia as part of Russian Federation | 25 | 35 | 25 | 24 | 23 |
Facilitate the entrance of South Ossetia into Russia-Belarus Union | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
Hard to tell | 11 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 10 |
Note: Using materials from the site www.wciom.ru or www.wciom.com, as well as distributed by VCIOM,
the reference to the source (or hyperlink for the electronic media) is obligatory!