MOSCOW, 14 January 2022. Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) presents the findings of a survey on the attitudes of Russians towards the protests in Kazakhstan in January 2022.
Seventy-two percent of Russians are following the protests in Kazakhstan; 30% of them are monitoring the situation closely, but 42% do not go into details.
Seventy-four percent of respondents are interested in the situation to a certain degree; one-third of the respondents say everything that is happening in Kazakhstan matters to them (34%). About a fifth of respondents say they are not interested in the developments in Kazakhstan (22%).
Reasons for unrest
Russians who show interest in the events in Kazakhstan qualify the situation as unrest triggered by a rise in gas prices (26%), a coup d’état (17%), chaos and outrage (10%), upheaval and looting (8%), a terrorist attack (7%), and a civil war (7%).
A quarter of respondents who are following the situation consider that the protests are caused by increased gas prices (25%); 16% say that this is the way people in Kazakhstan express their opinion; 13% blame poverty; 12% point out external forces (12%).
Every fifth Russian interested in the events views the situation as a provocation by foreign intelligence agencies (21%); 17% think it is a civil unrest; 14% point to struggle for power; 9% believe that it is an attempt of different countries to strengthen their influence in the region; 8% think it is an international terrorist attack against Kazakhstan.
Using security forces to break up the protests is most likely a right decision according to 63% of those who are interested in the events in Kazakhstan; 23% consider this decision as wrong.
Emotional assessment of protests in Kazakhstan
Those Russians who are interested in the situation in Kazakhstan feel fear (30%), condemnation (25%), disappointment (24%), hope (19%), respect (14%), and skepticism (5%).
Respondents who are interested in the situation in Kazakhstan express condemnation to the protest participants (49%); 25% support them; 9% remain indifferent.
Russian peacekeeping troops in Kazakhstan
Most of the respondents who are following the situation in Kazakhstan consider the Kazakh president’s request to send the CSTO peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan as adequate (70%); 21% do not share this opinion.
Russians interested in the situation in Kazakhstan believe that sending Russian peacekeeping troops to Kazakhstan to protect strategic facilities was a right decision (71%); 21% oppose them.
Those who say that the decision was right bring forward the following reasons: it is important to help a fraternal people (33%); it is important to solve the problem peacefully (25%); this is what Russia’s security relies on (17%); they cannot tackle it without Russia (14%); we are part of the CSTO (12%); it is important to protect strategic facilities (10%).
More than half of Russians who keep a close eye on the developments in Kazakhstan consider that the protest wave is likely to decline soon (66%); every fifth respondent who is following the situation thinks that the protests will keep on going but they will not have a mass character (20%); 4% say the protests may evolve into a civil war.
Russian nationwide telephone-based survey was conducted January 8-9, 2022. A total of 1,600 of Russians aged 18 and older took part in the survey. Results are based on telephone interviews. Stratified dual-frame random sample based on a complete list of Russian landline and mobile phone numbers was used. The data were weighted according to selection probability and social and demographic characteristics. The margin of error at a 95% confidence level does not exceed 2.5%. In addition to sampling error, minor changes to the wording of questions and different circumstances arising during the fieldwork can introduce bias into the survey.
Are you following the current events in Kazakhstan or not? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |
Yes, very closely | 30 |
Yes, I am but I do not go into details | 42 |
No | 28 |
People have different opinions on what happens in other countries. There are events people show interest in but do not personally worry about. There are events they show interest in and do worry about. And still there are some events people are not interested in and do not worry about. Speaking about the events in Kazakhstan, which opinion do you feel closest to? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of total respondents) | |
I am interested in what is happening in Kazakhstan but it does not matter to me personally | 40 |
I am interested in what is happening in Kazakhstan and it matters a lot to me | 34 |
I am not interested in what is happening in Kazakhstan and it does not matter to me at all | 22 |
Don’t know | 4 |
Can you describe in 2-3 words what is happening in Kazakhstan at the moment? | |
Riot / civil unrest/ upheaval incited by gas price increase; low living standards / discontent with the government | 26 |
Coup d’etat/ change of power | 17 |
Chaos/ outrage/ lawlessness | 10 |
Upheaval/ looting | 8 |
Gangsterism / terrorist attack | 7 |
War/ military actions/ civil war | 7 |
Normalization of situation / dispatching of peacekeeping forces to stabilize the situation | 5 |
External intervention/US intervention | 5 |
Murders/ violence | 4 |
Situation similar to the one in Ukraine and/or Belarus / another Maidan | 3 |
Struggle for power/ distribution of power between Kazakhstani elites | 3 |
Destabilization of the situation | 3 |
Provocation by interest groups | 3 |
Everything is bad/ I do not support what is going on there | 2 |
Corruption/ inactivity of the authorities | 2 |
I keep a close eye on the situation; I feel bad for this country | 2 |
A move against Russia | 1 |
Everything is right/ I support what is happening there | 1 |
Other | 8 |
Don’t know | 20 |
In your opinion, what are the reasons behind the current protests in Kazakhstan? | |
Gas price increase/ petrol price increase / foods | 25 |
People expressing their own opinions/ discontent/ people were pushed over the edge | 16 |
Poverty / low living standards | 13 |
Eternal intervention / external forces/ pushing | 12 |
Struggle for power/ unchanging political power | 9 |
Indifference/ government inactivity / wrong policies | 8 |
Combatants, specially trained people, are protesting | 4 |
Corruption/ kleptocratic government/ clan system | 4 |
Domestic economic crisis | 3 |
Low salaries/pensions | 3 |
War against Russia/ destabilization | 3 |
America creates problems | 2 |
Unemployment | 2 |
Stupidity/people’s illiteracy | 1 |
Money/ someone pays for that | 1 |
Coronavirus | 1 |
Other | 3 |
No reasons | 0,1 |
Don’t know | 24 |
There are different opinions on the situation in Kazakhstan. I’m going to read several viewpoints. Please tell me which one you feel closest to? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those who are interested in the developments in Kazakhstan) | |
This is a provocation by foreign special agencies | 21 |
It is a civil unrest, revolution | 17 |
Different Kazakh clans are struggling for power, distribution of spheres of influence | 14 |
An attempt of foreign countries to strengthen their influence in the country | 9 |
It is an international terrorist attack against Kazakhstan | 8 |
It is an attempt of Kazakh radical forces, criminal groups to take power into their hands | 7 |
It is a matter of chance | 5 |
Other | 6 |
Don’t know | 13 |
To break up the protests the Kazakhstani authorities used law enforcement agencies. In your opinion, is it likely a good or wrong decision in this situation? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those who are interested in the developments in Kazakhstan) | |
Likely right | 63 |
Likely wrong | 23 |
Don’t know | 13 |
What emotions do you feel about the situation in Kazakhstan? Please choose two characteristics that suit your viewpoint the most? (closed-ended question, up to 2 answers; % of those who are interested in the developments in Kazakhstan) | |
Fear | 30 |
Condemnation | 25 |
Disappointment | 24 |
Hope | 19 |
Respect | 14 |
Skepticism | 5 |
Indifference | 4 |
Liking | 3 |
Admiration | 3 |
Don’t know | 12 |
How do you generally perceive the participants of the protests in Kazakhstan? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those who are interested in the developments in Kazakhstan) | |
Likely to support them | 25 |
Indifferently | 9 |
Likely to condemn them | 49 |
Don’t know | 16 |
Kazakhstan called on the Collective Security Treaty Organization to send peacekeeping troops to Kazakhstan. The CSTO includes Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. In your opinion, is this request justified, adequate to the situation or unjustified, not adequate to the situation? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those who are interested in the developments in Kazakhstan) | |
Likely adequate | 70 |
Unlikely adequate | 21 |
Don’t know | 9 |
Russia along with Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan sent peacekeeping troops to Kazakhstan. The forces included airborne units. The mission was to protect strategic facilities in Kazakhstan. In your opinion, was the decision to send Russian military personnel as part of the CSTO mission right or wrong? (closed-ended question, one answer, % of those who are interested in the developments in Kazakhstan) | |
Likely right | 71 |
Likely wrong | 21 |
Don’t know | 8 |
You have said that sending Russian military personnel to Kazakhstan was a right decision. Why do you think so? (open-ended question, up to 3 answers, % of those who think that the decision was right) | |
It is important to help them/ fraternal people | 33 |
The problem should be solved peacefully / it is important to put an end to the disorder/ we do not need another Ukraine | 25 |
Russia’s security is also important/ borders with Russia/ many Russian people live there | 17 |
They cannot tackle that without Russia/ they asked for help | 14 |
We are part of the CSTO | 12 |
Baikonur is very close / protection of strategic facilities | 10 |
No other options/ if not us, then who? | 5 |
Kazakhstan is strategically important to us | 3 |
Military personnel must protect people/ it’s their job | 1 |
Other | 3 |
Don’t know | 3 |
In your opinion, how will the situation in Kazakhstan be evolving? | |
The protests will evolve into chaos, civil war that may lead to the country's dissolution | 4 |
The protests will take place but they will not have a mass character, they will not be so big | 20 |
The protests will wrap up soon; the protest wave will decline | 66 |
Don’t know | 9 |